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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-23T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17810/-1
CME Note: CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-27T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-22T04:44Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 470 
Longitude (deg): E010
Latitude (deg): S24
Half-angular width (deg): 18

Notes: Low confidence due to messy CME signal, with bulk likely passing below Earth. But may combine with other CMEs expected. CME may also arrive with CH fast wind enhancement with wide range of Kp possible. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 44.42 hour(s)
Difference: -1.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-09-25T02:35Z

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